Theory of Change Analysis: Palestine Solidarity Network

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The genocide in Gaza has provoked a massive outburst of support for Palestinian liberation, and many campaigns have emerged in support of the Palestinian people. Some of the biggest campaigns in so-called Canada have been organized by the Palestine Solidarity Network (PSN), most notably its neighbourhood-based campaign to pressure Liberal MPs to take a stronger stance on Palestine. This provides an opportunity to analyze the theory of change of an ongoing campaign.

This article provides an analysis of the political factors affecting the theory of change of the Palestine Solidarity Network's neighbourhood-based campaign targeting Liberal MPs. In doing so, it aims to help PSN activists better understand the challenges they’re up against, and how to address them.

This article does not represent the views of the HUB as an organization, but is rather a project of the HUB Librarian (Anglophone) that aims to be of use to PSN activists. The analysis presented below is based on publicly available materials from the Palestine Solidarity Network, along with information from media and other sources about the Canadian political context. It does not necessarily reflect the information internal to the Palestine Solidarity Network, whose activists may be operating on additional information that is not publicly available.

Theories of Change

Activists use theories of change to orient their campaigns, because it is not enough just to fight. Like the Ontario Coalition Against Poverty (OCAP) says, we have to fight to win.

At the same time, campaigns should not be measured only by whether they succeed at achieving their ultimate goal. Every campaign involves intermediate wins and losses, skills and experience gained, and many dispersed effects on broader populations. All these outcomes are only possible because some people had the courage and commitment to take action against injustice, and to build solidarity with their neighbours, coworkers, and community members. The effects of their commitment will continue to resonate long after any single campaign.

Palestine Solidarity Network theory of change

The theory of change of the Palestine Solidarity Network's neighbourhood-based campaign is as follows:

  • IF we can apply significant inside and outside pressure on Liberal Members of Parliament (MPs),
  • THEN we can force the Liberal government to support a more pro-Palestine policy,
  • BECAUSE the electoral pressure on Liberal MPs will force them to push Trudeau to change his government’s policy on the ongoing genocide in Gaza.

This theory of change can be explained in more detail:

Inside strategy

The ‘inside’ strategy is to organize key community leaders and donors who have supported Liberal election campaigns to endorse PSN’s demands and call on their Liberal MP to pressure Trudeau to support these demands too.

Outside strategy

The ‘outside’ strategy is to organize constituents in Liberal MP ridings to build public pressure on their MP to show that their re-election chances are at risk because of the Liberal government’s position on Gaza.

The two main demands of this campaign are:

  • A two-way arms embargo on Israel, including arms-trade via the United States; and
  • Pressure on Israel to end the siege on Gaza.

Assumptions of the PSN theory of change

What are the major assumptions of this theory of change? This analysis identifies 6 assumptions:

Voter support for PSN

The bloc of Liberal voters who can be convinced to withhold their support for the Liberals is large enough to make Liberal MPs fear losing their seats, and wide enough for the Liberals in general to fear losing a plurality in the next general election.

Accountability of Liberal MPs to voters

Liberal MPs are sufficiently accountable to their voters that the Liberal government’s policy on Palestine can be changed by the threat of electoral defeat.

Electoral effect of a pro-Palestine position

If the Liberal party takes a pro-Palestine position, it will gain more votes than it would lose.

Liberal backbench support for PSN

A large enough number of Liberal backbench MPs can be convinced to break from the party line to force a change in the Liberal cabinet.

Influence on future election

The Liberal party's current policy on Palestine will affect its future electoral prospects.

Predicted election results

The Liberals are expected to win at least a plurality in the next general election, independently of the effect of this campaign.

To evaluate these assumptions, it is necessary to identify the political factors underlying them.

Political factors

This analysis of political factors considers both structural factors and conjunctural factors. “Structural factors” refer to stable political structures or institutions that shape the political terrain we confront as activists. “Conjunctural factors” refer to specific political situations that occur within these structural factors. In other words, conjunctural factors are the specific possible outcomes that can occur in the context of the given structural factors.

Structural factors

What are the structural factors that PSN's theory of change is engaged with?

  • Elections to the legislature and government, in which all political issues are discussed and decided upon.
  • The first-past-the-post electoral system, such that whichever candidate gets the most votes in an electoral riding wins the seat, and the votes for other candidates do not count to their party’s representation in the legislature or in the government.
  • Party-community relationships: that is, the mutually beneficial relationship between community leaders and the candidates they help to elect.
  • Influence and interest among MPs: backbench MPs of the ruling party (or parties) have an interest in supporting the policies of the Cabinet, since the Cabinet members have the most power to affect a backbench MP’s political appointments, and hence their political career. At the same time, backbench MPs also have the potential ability to shape the Cabinet’s policies by collectively demanding change.
  • Canada’s geopolitical alliance with the United States: Canada has significant economic, political, and military ties to the United States, and typically follows the US government’s lead on international matters.

Conjunctural factors

What are the conjunctural factors that the PSN’s theory of change is engaged with?

  • The Liberal government, which has been in power since 2015. Since 2019 the Liberals have been in a minority government, in which they have a plurality but not a majority of seats in the legislature.
  • The Liberal Party’s membership and electoral base, which primarily consists of supporters of liberal capitalism, both those who support it ideologically and those who have a material interest in Liberal Party policies (lots of overlap).
  • From March 2022 to September 2024, the Liberals and the NDP had a confidence and supply agreement, in which the NDP agreed to support the Liberal government’s spending bills and confidence motions in exchange for concessions on dental care and pharmaceutical care.

Impact of political factors on strategic assumptions

How do these structural and conjunctural political factors affect the assumptions of PSN’s theory of change?

Voter behaviour

Can people who voted Liberal be convinced to withhold their support for the Liberal Party because of the government’s stance on Palestine?

Political factor

Impact on voter behaviour

Elections to the legislature and government

Many people do not vote for MPs on the basis of single issues. This is an obstacle to making Palestine a deciding issue for Liberal voters.

The Liberal Party's electoral base

Most Liberal voters are unlikely to be strong supporters of Palestinian liberation.

Party-community relationships

The party-community relationship between the Liberals and Muslim and Arab voters has been undermined by the Liberal government’s stance on Palestine, as well as its failure to address Islamophobia. The Liberal government’s failures on these issues could be significant enough for them to withhold their votes.

65% of Muslim voters in the 2015 federal election voted Liberal and 10% voted NDP. (Voter breakdown by religion was not found for either the 2019 or 2021 election.)

According to The Canadian Muslim Vote, in the 2021 federal election there were 100 ridings where the potential Muslim voters exceeded the riding’s margin of victory, suggesting that “Canadian Muslims are in a unique position this election to decide which party will govern and whether they will form a majority or minority government.” PSN activists could further look into this possibility for the next election.

First-past-the-post electoral system (FPTP)

If former Liberal voters withhold their support for the Liberals, what would they do instead?

FPTP encourages people to vote for one of the two dominant parties, even if they would prefer to support a smaller party. FPTP means that if former Liberal supporters redirect their support to a smaller party like the NDP, they increase the chances of ‘splitting the vote’ and hence leading to disproportionate gains for the Conservatives.

This means that many left-wing voters are likely to feel pressured to ‘hold their nose’ and vote Liberal because there is no better immediate alternative. This will only change if one of two circumstances occurs:

  • The Liberals or the Conservatives lose their status as one of the two dominant parties and are replaced by a left-wing party (as happened to the Liberals and the NDP in 2011); or
  • Electoral reform introduces election by proportional representation.

First-past-the-post and the NDP-Liberal confidence and supply agreement

The PSN’s theory of change seeks to show Trudeau that he could lose the next general election if he doesn’t support Palestine, and that he can gain support and win the next election if he does. This makes it a strategy to keep the Liberals in government.

But if the goal is to keep the Liberals in government, then what is the threat that would pressure the Liberals to change their policy? Leftist voters are already pressured by the first-past-the-post system to vote Liberal in order to keep out the Conservatives, and this will be true even if the Liberals maintain their current policy.

In principle, a party like the NDP is more aligned with Palestinian liberation, but its influence is undermined by FPTP. Because of the NDP-Liberal confidence and supply agreement, which was in place until September 2024, the NDP could have brought down the Liberal government on the issue of Palestine, but FPTP (among other factors) makes it unlikely that they would have benefited from a general election.

Liberal accountability to voters

Are Liberal MPs sufficiently accountable to their voters that the Liberal government's policy on Palestine can be changed by the threat of electoral defeat?

Political factor

Impact on voter behaviour

Liberal Party electoral base

The Liberal party is not just under threat from pro-Palestine Liberal voters. It is also under threat from pro-Israel Liberal voters, and from all Liberal voters who can organize themselves as a voting bloc. In other words, there is no single bloc of voters that poses a unique threat to the Liberals’ election chances. Every bloc of voters is potentially decisive in the Liberals’ election chances.

Liberal Party membership base

Most Liberal voters are unlikely to be strong supporters of Palestinian liberation.

Party-community relationships

The Liberal Party’s electoral base does not consist merely of those who vote for Liberal candidates, but also the Liberal party membership. It is the Liberal party membership that funds the party, that sets its policy, that nominates its electoral candidates, and that elects the party leader who then aspires to become the Prime Minister. So in order to become a Liberal candidate, it is necessary to be supported by the Liberal party membership. This makes Liberal MPs accountable to their party, as well as the ridings they represent.

This means that Liberal MPs have interests that are independent of the voters in the ridings they represent. This limits their accountability to their voters and hence limits the threat of electoral defeat, since party members are not guaranteed to adapt their positions simply to avoid electoral defeat. If this were the case, they would fail to represent the distinct political positions of their party.

Canada's geopolitical alliance with the US

As a political party that seeks to govern the Canadian capitalist state, one of the default positions of Liberal politicians is support for Canada’s geopolitical alliance with the US, including support for Israel. This affects the extent to which Liberal politicians can be pressured to take a stronger stance of support for Palestine.

These factors suggest that the Liberal government may not be responsive to the threat of electoral defeat on the issue of Palestine, since the issue involves core elements of their political identity that they are not likely to compromise on without a significant political crisis. But losing an election while remaining the dominant second party may not be a significant political crisis for the Liberal party.

Electoral effect of a pro-Palestine position

If the Liberal party takes a pro-Palestine position, will it gain more votes than it would lose?

Political factor

Impact on voter behaviour

Liberal Party electoral base

The Liberal Party’s policy on Palestine will affect the support it receives from its electoral base. Because of the Liberals’ present policy on Palestine, they are not only trailing the NDP in support from Muslim voters, but they are also trailing the Conservatives in support from Jewish voters. If the Liberals take a more pro-Palestine stance, will they lose even more support from Jewish voters who had previously voted Liberal? If so, what will be the effect on swing ridings where the Liberal candidate won by only a few hundred votes?

The answer will differ from riding to riding, based in part on each riding’s demographics. If the Liberals take a more pro-Palestine position, they may hold onto their seats where they were at risk of losing to the NDP, and they may even win votes from the NDP, but they will also likely lose other seats to the Conservatives. This means that whether PSN’s theory of change is true depends on the effect of a pro-Palestine position on the right-wing side of the Liberal party’s electoral base. PSN activists could look more into this question to better understand the likely electoral effects of a Liberal policy shift on Palestine.

Liberal backbenchers

Can Liberal backbenchers be convinced to break from the party line and force a change in Liberal government policy on Palestine?

Political factor

Impact on Liberal backbenchers

Influence and interest among MPs

Backbench MPs of the ruling party have an interest in supporting the Cabinet’s policies, since the Cabinet members have the most power to affect a backbench MP’s political career. Liberal MPs therefore have a default interest in following the current party line.

Given that the Liberals' current position attempts to appease its centrist electoral and membership base, it may be difficult to convince Liberal backbenchers to attempt a collective revolt against the cabinet. But while difficult, it is by no means impossible.

Influence on future election

Political factor

Elections to the government and legislature

Impact on the influence on future election

A lot could change in Canadian politics between the start of the PSN’s campaign and the next election, so we don’t know that Palestine will have as much significance then as it does now. This means that a potential future electoral defeat may not be significant leverage on the current actions of Liberal MPs.

If the Liberals are able to make the election about a different issue, in particular one that distinguishes them sharply from the Conservatives, the issue of Palestine might become less relevant to voters.

Predicted election results

Independently of this campaign, are the Liberals expected to win the next general election?

According to 338Canada, the Liberals are expected to win 64 seats, and the Conservatives are expected to win a resounding majority of 215 of 338 seats. This suggests that Palestine is not one of the issues that voters are most concerned about. It also suggests that the Liberals will try to adjust their political messaging to capture some of the Conservative vote, which would mean that their policy may become even less pro-Palestine.

Conclusion

This analysis has presented a number of political factors that affect the Palestine Solidarity Network’s neighbourhood campaign targeting Liberal MPs. In particular, it has noted structural political factors that pose potential obstacles to pro-Palestine support in the legislature and government. Overcoming these obstacles may require a longer-term campaign to overcome these structural factors themselves.

For example, the first-past-the-post electoral system plays an important role in undermining the political viability of parties to the left of the Liberals. A struggle to overcome this structural factor, however, would almost certainly go beyond an immediate struggle in support of Palestinian liberation.

Nonetheless, the conclusion is not that this theory of change is impossible under the current political circumstances. As activists, we are always up against seemingly impossible odds, and we need a clear understanding of the factors at play in order to figure out how we should organize and what strategy to pursue. This is what a theory of change and a political analysis of our assumptions are for.

But organizing always involves a leap of faith, because we never know exactly how things will play out in advance. A theory of change is a hypothesis to be tested in practice, and the lessons learned through practice feed back into our future strategy. The people who are best placed to incorporate these lesssons are the activists themselves, in the whole movement ecology of the climate and social justice movement, of which the Palestine Solidarity Network is a vital part.

Sources and further reading

Palestine Solidarity Network

NDP-Liberal confidence and supply agreement

Voter behaviour

Liberal MPs

Predicted election results

The Canadian political system

Canada-US relations

Canada's UN General Assembly votes on ceasefire resolutions

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